Learn about probabilities in Blackjack

Don't think that winning at Blackjack on wagering websites is a simple matter or just based on luck, because all players will need to rely on strategies in the game of Blackjack. All Blackjack experts have not only experienced failure before but also had to gain valuable experience and possess the "qualities" of a professional gambler, which is accurate calculation during the game and understanding the probability factor of this game. Many scientists have calculated the odds and probabilities of betting options. With a game as complex as Blackjack, calculation is indispensable. You can completely win by intelligently applying mathematical probability.

How to win at Blackjack based on probability

Learn about probabilities in Blackjack

First, we will present to you the probabilities associated with handling cards and initial predictions. In this calculation process, information on cheating transactions will not be considered (as in all situations corresponding to card games). All probabilities are calculated for cases that use one or two decks of cards in that game. Let's look at the probability for a favorable initial hand (the first two cards dealt) to achieve the goal with Blackjack. The total number of combinations possible for each of the two cards is C (52, 2) = 1326, for a single deck game, and C will be (104, 2) = 5356 for a game with 2 decks. Where:

• The probability of getting a natural blackjack is P = 8/663 = 1.20663% in the case of a single-deck game, and P = 16/1339 = 1.19492% in the case of a game with two decks.
• The probability of getting a blackjack from the first two cards is P = 32/663 = 4.82654% in the case of a single-deck game, and P = 64/1339 = 4.77968% in the case of a game with two decks.

Similarly, we can calculate the probabilities as follows:

• The probability of getting 20 points from the first two cards is P = 68/663 = 10.25641% in the case of a single-deck game, and P = 140/1339 = 10.45556% in the case of a game with two decks.
• The probability of getting 19 points from the first two cards is P = 40/663 = 6.03318% in the case of a single-deck game, and P = 80/1339 = 5.97460% in the case of a game with two decks.
• The probability of getting 18 points from the first two cards is P = 43/663 = 6.48567% in the case of a single-deck game, and P = 87/1339 = 6.4973% in the case of a game with two decks.
• The probability of getting 17 points from the first two cards is P = 16/221 = 7.23981% in the case of a single-deck game, and P = 96/1339 = 7.16952% in the case of a game with two decks.

A good initial hand (which you can stick with) can be a blackjack or a score of 20, 19 or 18 points. The probability of getting any of these points is calculated by adding up the corresponding probabilities calculated on: P = 32/663 + 68/663 + 40/663 + 43/663 = 183/663, in the case of a single-deck game and P = 64/1339 + 140/1339 + 80/1339 + 87/1339 = 371/1339, in the case of a 2-deck game.

The probability of getting the best initial hand will be P = 183/663 = 27.60180% in the case of a single-deck game and P = 371/1339 = 27.70724% in the case of a 2-deck game.

The probabilities of events to be predicted throughout the game will also be calculated based on the playing cards (the cards displayed) from a certain point that has appeared. This will require you to calculate some advantages for the dealer and for other players, as well as in your hand. Any blackjack strategy will also be based on counting the cards played. Unlike some other games like baccarat, where there will be a maximum of three cards played for each player, in blackjack, many cards can be played at a certain point, especially when multiple players are at the table. Both will have to keep track and memorize certain cards that require some skill and training beforehand for the players. Card counting technique cannot be applied in online blackjack and requires a lot of experience to learn.

The formula for the probability of getting a certain advantageous value is evaluated similarly to baccarat games and will depend on the number of decks of cards used. If we denote by x an advantageous value, by nx the number of cards displaying the value x (from your hand, other players' hands and the dealer's face-up cards) and by nv the total number of displayed cards, then the probability of the next card from the shoe (one of the things you get if you request an additional card) having the value x is calculated.

This formula will hold for the case of a game with a single deck. In the case of a game with 2 decks, in general, if you play with m decks, the probability of getting a card with the value x will also be carefully calculated.

Further reference: Great blackjack tips you need to know.

An example of the application of the formula: Suppose playing with a shoe, you are the only player at the table, you hold the Q, 2, 4, A (total value...

We will have nx = 2, nv = 5.

• For the probability of getting 20 points (receiving a 3), we will have nx = 0, nv = 5.
• For the probability of getting 19 points (receiving a 2), we will have nx = 1, nv = 5.
• If we want to calculate the probability of getting 19, 20, or 21 points, all we have to do is add up the three probabilities. We have P = 9/47 = 19.14893%.

How to calculate probabilities in blackjack

Unlike in baccarat, in blackjack there will be fewer cards played, the number of players will remain constant (two), and the number of game situations will also be very limited. In blackjack, the number of playing configurations can be in the thousands and as a practical matter cannot be covered by specific value tables.

Conclusion

One of the things you will need to pay attention to in blackjack is to learn about the probabilities in blackjack for this game. These will be win tips that will help you easily grasp your chances in the game and know exactly what your chances are with blackjack. From what we have shared about probability calculations with blackjack above, it has helped you gain more advantages in evaluating the game's possibilities. Good luck to you.